Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
