A mere eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as his coach scolded him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. After the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, now sit just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard question to address. History, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, while the victories have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side had an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a club that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear strangely fragile – however at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and wait for their star man to rescue them with some precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again versus United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
